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The Second Year Of The Bull Market Begins

The Second Year Of The Bull Market Begins

LPL Research discusses the end of the bear market and the trends of a bull market in year two. 

We take a look back at what happened last March, while also examining how previous bull markets did during the second year of their existence.

Incredibly, the S&P 500 has increased more than 74.9% since the lows a year ago (as of March 19, 2021), making it the best start to a bull market ever. After such a strong first year, where might this bull market go in its second year?

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Earlier Posts


5 Charts We Are Watching

5 Charts We Are Watching

There have been many charts and data sets that we have been paying attention to the last several weeks. Here LPL Research shows the charts in their Top 5 worth watching.

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Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

One of the top requests at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Click the link below to see some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.

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LPL Research: Street View Video

LPL Street View: The Most Powerful Force in US Politics

What do the distance to the sun and the US presidential election have in common? LPL Financial Research CIO Burt White talks about the impact the most powerful force in US politics can have on an election.


Midyear Outlook 2020: The Trail To Recovery

Midyear Outlook 2020: The Trail To Recovery

LPL Research's Midyear Outlook 2020 provides our updated views of the pillars for investing-the economy, bonds, and stocks.

Click Here! To access Midyear Outlook 2020 as a PDF Document.

Interactive Digital Booklet


LPL Research: Street View Video

Why Did God Create Economist?

... To make weathermen look good.

LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick talks about recent improvements in the economy and strong economic data.


The CARES Act Key Components



The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Recovery Act


Dear Valued Clients,

I hope this note finds you and those around you safe and healthy during this unprecedented time. You may be aware at the end of March, President Trump signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act and it is now law. This is the third piece of legislation that Congress has passed to help Americans deal with the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

This historic and sweeping legislation was created to help keep workers paid and employed, allows businesses to remain operational and makes necessary health care system enhancements to stabilize the economy. We want to make sure you are aware of certain provisions designed to help you.

  • Retirement Assistance – Retirement plan withdrawals for COVID-19 affected individuals, access to plan loans, waiver of RMDs for 2020 and allowance for plan amendments
  • Individual Assistance – 2020 tax recovery rebates for incomes up to $99,000 for singles and $198,000 for married couples
  • Small Business Assistance – Paycheck protection program, loan assistance, loan forgiveness, employee retention credit and tax benefits

Attached is a one page overview of these key provisions and FAQs related to each of the key highlights.

We’re here for you via phone or email and look forward to discussing the CARES Act or answering any other questions to help you with your financial needs.

Please feel free to contact me at (219) 462-3630 any time.


Dan Wilburn


LPL Research Street View: Really Big Numbers

LPL Financial Research Cheif Investment Officer Burt White talks about recent big numbers,

including 3 million jobless claims and the $2 trillion stimulus package.


Market Volatility Client Letter

February 28, 2020

Dear Valued Client:

“The stock market takes an escalator up, and an elevator down,” is a classic Wall Street saying.

The last week has sure felt like taking an express elevator down, as the end of February brought a historic stock market sell-off, with the S&P 500 Index moving from an all-time high to a 10% correction in only six days—the quickest such move ever. Along the way, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) experienced multiple 1,000-point drops, including Thursday’s biggest one-day point drop ever, adding to fears. As the coronavirus spreads around the globe, what was once a promising start to 2020 now has the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq Composite all negative year to date.

To put the recent market weakness in perspective, in an average year the S&P 500 may pull back from its highest point to its lowest point 14% on average. Even in years in which the S&P 500 finished higher, it had a pullback of 11% on average. In 2019, when stocks gained more than 30%, we saw two pullbacks of more than 5% during the year. After a historically calm stretch to end last year and start this year, larger than normal volatility shouldn’t come as a surprise. We didn’t expect stocks to pull back this quickly, but we’re still within the normal range of market volatility.

We never want to minimize the loss of human lives, but keep in mind that less than 3,000 people have died from coronavirus globally so far, compared to the nearly 80,000 people who have died from the seasonal flu this year. Also, the number of active cases of coronavirus peaked at nearly 58,000 February 17 and has dropped to less than 44,000 now, a drop of more than 24% in less than two weeks. Also, the World Health Organization won’t call this outbreak a pandemic because of the extremely low mortality rate among young and healthy people. The mortality rate for people over the age of 80 is nearly 15%, but that drops to less than 0.3% for people under the age of 50, with rates even lower in developed countries. Here in the U.S., more than 60 people have contracted the virus, but none have passed away.

What could be the potential economic impact? Any economic disruption in the United States most likely would be modest and short-lived. Domestic efforts to contain the virus should be more successful and have less economic disruption than in China. The epidemic could cut as much as 0.5% from gross domestic product (GDP) over the next several months, but as the virus becomes contained, it is likely we could return to trend growth during the second quarter. Globally, we can’t shut down a large portion of the world’s second largest economy (China) without experiencing spillover effects. China’s GDP could weaken significantly in the first quarter, but a potential return to trend growth by the third quarter may be possible if this outbreak follows a course similar to previous outbreaks (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, etc.).

As difficult as this week has been, it’s important to follow your investment strategies and focus on the long term. Based on history and solid economic fundamentals, a return to pre-outbreak levels of global economic growth and corporate profits appears likely. Investing fundamentals suggest that a second-half economic rebound, potentially aided by government and fiscal stimulus, could help extend this record-long economic cycle into 2021.

Please contact me if you have any questions or concerns.


Dan L. Wilburn, CFP®

President, R.B. Smith Co., Inc.

LPL Financial

554 Vale Park Rd.

Valparaiso, IN 46385

Phone: (219) 462-3630

Fax: (866) 476-1144











Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of February 28, 2020.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.


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